Product · Twin

The whole line, every metre.

Pressure, flow and leak likelihood along the line, with how sure we are and where each number comes from.

Proven in simulation12,800 simulated cases. Not yet on a real line.
1

Measured, inferred, assumed and predicted are kept apart

2

Uncertainty split by source: sensor, state, parameter, model

3

Says so when the model itself is wrong

What it looks like

The line, with its doubt

Pressure along the line, 6 minutes into a sudden leak
Green line and band: the twin's estimate and its 90% doubt. White dots: the real gauges. Leak interval km 17.8–km 18.6.
34474111390 km5 km10 km15 km20 kmkPa
Measureda sensor reading, with its noise
Inferredcomputed from the model and the sensors
Assumeda constant we were given: density, elevation
Hypothesisa probability, conditional on a model

The band is the twin's own doubt, split by source: sensor noise, state, parameters, model, and which explanation is true.

What it needs

  • Pipe geometry and elevation
  • Sensor positions and SCADA history

What it is not

  • Not a database of truth. The best current explanation, open to challenge.
Works with